Dragon Blaze
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$999.41
1,999 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $899.46 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.67%
744 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 760 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$9991,999 coins$9,90019,800 coins9.91x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $999 | 90.00% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.5%legendary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%contraband 0.0%#8847ff 17.0%#4b69ff 8.5%classified 8.5%Mythical 8.5%restricted 8.5%milspec 8.5%best hit $9,900 (9.91x)