Dragon Or Doodle
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7,492.50
14,985 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6,743.25 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.21%
452 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $217K 434,217 coins | 8.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $112K 223,312 coins | 41.4% | 5 | 11.3 | 0.44× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 15.3% | 7 | 11.3 | 0.62× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 9.9% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 9.2% | 17 | 11.3 | 1.50× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 6.9% | 22 | 22.6 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $4,916 9,833 coins | 7.3% | 47 | 45.2 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon | 22.0% | $361 722 coins | 1.2% | 95 | 99.4 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New)weapon | 26.0% | $156 312 coins | 0.6% | 133 | 117.5 | 1.13× |
| AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon | 26.8% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 0.2% | 114 | 120.9 | 0.94× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · coverteklinga$7,49314,985 coins$217K434,217 coins28.98x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$112K223,312 coins14.90x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$112K223,312 coins14.90x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$112K223,312 coins14.90x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$112K223,312 coins14.90x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$112K223,312 coins14.90x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covertbigbombaclat$7,49314,985 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.50x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.50x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.50x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.50x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · weaponMoon1025$7,49314,985 coins$361722 coins0.05x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$112K223,312 coins14.90x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,49314,985 coins$26.7K53,347 coins3.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7,493 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.3%other 74.8%best hit $217K (28.98x)