Dragon Trophy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.89

104 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $46.69 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.21%

444 openings, odds method

Variance

70.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

73.94%±85.36374 openings

30 days

75.21%±78.35444 openings

since tracking started

75.21%±78.35444 openings

-0.5%349.5%699.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	24.97%±674.0	—	odds
7d	374	73.94%±85.4	−0.4σ	odds
30d	444	75.21%±78.3	−0.4σ	odds
All	444	75.21%±78.3	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 444 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$41.2K 82,490 coins	8.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$712 1,424 coins	68.6%	17	20.0	0.85×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$42.01 84.01 coins	8.1%	55	40.0	1.38×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$32.01 64.02 coins	1.0%	8	6.7	1.20×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$29.05 58.1 coins	1.9%	8	13.3	0.60×
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$13.05 26.1 coins	4.5%	74	71.0	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	16.0%	$7.88 15.75 coins	2.7%	76	71.0	1.07×
SG 553 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	12.0%	$7.26 14.51 coins	1.9%	50	53.3	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified	13.0%	$4.49 8.98 coins	1.3%	51	57.7	0.88×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$3.67 7.34 coins	0.6%	44	35.5	1.24×
M249 \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 13	$2.03 4.05 coins	0.3%	26	35.5	0.73×
P250 \| Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$1.61 3.21 coins	0.3%	35	39.9	0.88×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$51.89104 coins$7121,424 coins13.72x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarycaze$51.89104 coins$7121,424 coins13.72x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$51.89104 coins$7121,424 coins13.72x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$51.89104 coins$7121,424 coins13.72x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$51.89104 coins$7121,424 coins13.72x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified$51.89104 coins$4.498.98 coins0.09x17h

M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$51.89104 coins$3.677.34 coins0.07x17h

SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Common$51.89104 coins$7.2614.51 coins0.14x17h

AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$51.89104 coins$13.0526.1 coins0.25x17h

SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Common$51.89104 coins$7.2614.51 coins0.14x17h

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryBlankTorch7918$51.89104 coins$42.0184.01 coins0.81x17h

Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$51.89104 coins$7.8815.75 coins0.15x1d

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$51.89104 coins$42.0184.01 coins0.81x1d

Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$51.89104 coins$7.8815.75 coins0.15x1d

P250 | Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial$51.89104 coins$1.613.21 coins0.03x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.89	89.99%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 11.0%extraordinary 13.5%restricted 1.5%mil spec 16.0%#4b69ff 16.0%Common 20.0%classified 13.0%industrial 9.0%best hit $712 (13.72x)