Dream

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$231.08

462 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $207.96 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

130.59%

210 openings, odds method

Variance

6.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

133.63%±35.88194 openings

30 days

130.59%±34.48210 openings

since tracking started

130.59%±34.48210 openings

89.5%129.8%170.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.11% – 165.07%, 210 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	194	133.63%±35.9	+2.4σ	odds
30d	210	130.59%±34.5	+2.3σ	odds
All	210	130.59%±34.5	+2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$10.4K 20,866 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$8,862 17,724 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$7,651 15,302 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$6,222 12,443 coins	1.5%	1	0.1	—
Charm \| Baby Karat CTcharm · rare	1 in 1,000	$3,848 7,697 coins	1.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 50	$1,786 3,573 coins	17.2%	10	4.2	2.38×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$1,749 3,497 coins	16.8%	5	4.2	1.19×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$1,678 3,356 coins	16.1%	7	4.2	1.67×
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$1,598 3,196 coins	15.4%	5	4.2	1.19×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 50	$1,551 3,102 coins	14.9%	5	4.2	1.19×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 50	$1,505 3,010 coins	14.5%	2	4.2	0.48×
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	87.8%	$0.25 0.5 coins	0.1%	175	184.4	0.95×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$231462 coins$6,22212,443 coins26.93x2d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$231462 coins$1,7863,573 coins7.73x1d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$231462 coins$1,7863,573 coins7.73x2d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knifeBreeTheG$231462 coins$1,7863,573 coins7.73x2d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knifeBrentson$231462 coins$1,7863,573 coins7.73x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$231462 coins$0.250.5 coins0.00x1d

PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffBreeTheG$231462 coins$0.250.5 coins0.00x1d

PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$231462 coins$0.250.5 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$231	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%extraordinary 0.1%rare 0.1%other 4.0%classified 2.0%legendary 2.0%#4b69ff 87.8%best hit $6,222 (26.93x)