Dunce

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.24

0.48 coins

Advertised RTP

89.76%

EV $0.22 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.53%

13.5K openings, odds method

Variance

14.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.02%±19.911,413 openings

7 days

86.70%±6.5812.9K openings

30 days

86.53%±6.4413.5K openings

since tracking started

86.53%±6.4413.5K openings

61.5%82.0%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,413	82.02%±19.9	−0.8σ	odds
7d	12.9K	86.70%±6.58	−0.9σ	odds
30d	13.5K	86.53%±6.44	−1.0σ	odds
All	13.5K	86.53%±6.44	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$51.37 103 coins	2.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$49.74 99.48 coins	2.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
Charm \| Lil' Avacharm · uncommon	1 in 4,000	$28.13 56.25 coins	3.3%	1	3.4	0.30×
P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,000	$11.18 22.35 coins	2.6%	8	6.7	1.19×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$4.72 9.43 coins	3.3%	24	20.2	1.19×
Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon	1 in 500	$3.01 6.01 coins	2.8%	30	27.0	1.11×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$2.75 5.49 coins	3.8%	60	40.5	1.48×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$1.17 2.33 coins	3.2%	88	81.0	1.09×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 100	$0.77 1.54 coins	3.6%	134	135.0	0.99×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.34 0.67 coins	4.7%	399	404.9	0.99×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$0.30 0.61 coins	4.2%	417	404.9	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Rebel (Factory New)weapon · milspec	91.7%	$0.15 0.3 coins	63.8%	12,335	12369.8	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Charm | Lil' Avacharm · uncommon$0.240.48 coins$28.1356.25 coins117.2x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.240.48 coins$0.340.67 coins1.40x10m

Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)weapon · milspec$0.240.48 coins$0.150.3 coins0.63x10m

Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)weapon · milspecMoon1025$0.240.48 coins$0.150.3 coins0.63x10m

Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)weapon · milspec$0.240.48 coins$0.150.3 coins0.63x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.24	89.76%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.5%uncommon 0.0%industrial 0.1%other 0.2%restricted 0.6%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%mil spec 3.0%Mythical 3.0%milspec 91.7%best hit $28.13 (117.2x)