Dust 2
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.77
9.54 coins
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $4.29 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.73%
402 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 402 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $66.81 134 coins | 15.6% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.74× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $50.22 100 coins | 11.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $35.95 71.89 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 10.7% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.24× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $12.80 25.6 coins | 14.9% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.09× |
| MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 6.4% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.04× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 3.0% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.14× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 80.0% | $1.57 3.14 coins | 29.3% | 314 | 321.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.77 | 89.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%covert 1.0%classified 7.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%violet 80.0%best hit —