Easter Eggs

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$120.39

241 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $108.35 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

306.24%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

89.5%265.5%441.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	306.24%±134.7	—	odds
30d	8	306.24%±134.7	—	odds
All	8	306.24%±134.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 222	$1,252 2,504 coins	5.2%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1,182 2,363 coins	7.6%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 91	$999 1,998 coins	10.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 85	$818 1,635 coins	8.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4	1 in 82	$771 1,543 coins	8.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 79	$696 1,391 coins	8.1%	1	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$658 1,316 coins	8.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$520 1,040 coins	7.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50	$316 632 coins	5.8%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$312 624 coins	5.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 17	$213 426 coins	11.8%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$118 236 coins	6.5%	0	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$45.68 91.35 coins	2.5%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	16.0%	$17.02 34.03 coins	2.5%	1	1.3	0.78×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	16.0%	$4.88 9.76 coins	0.7%	1	1.3	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	37.3%	$1.27 2.54 coins	0.4%	1	3.0	0.34×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.