Easter Mirage
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.13
36.26 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.31 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
147.35%
101 openings, odds method
Variance
7.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.01% – 200.68%, 101 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.1336.26 coins$1,2662,533 coins69.85x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.13 | 89.98% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.3%sunny 0.5%other 0.7%restricted 8.0%classified 16.0%Common 63.5%best hit $1,266 (69.85x)