Eclipse

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.02

36.03 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $16.21 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.52%

393 openings, odds method

Variance

12.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 34

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

96.22%±37.94329 openings

30 days

96.52%±34.71393 openings

since tracking started

96.52%±34.71393 openings

-0.5%203.3%407.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	9.21%±397.3	—	odds
7d	329	96.22%±37.9	+0.3σ	odds
30d	393	96.52%±34.7	+0.4σ	odds
All	393	96.52%±34.7	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 393 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,301 2,602 coins	8.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 333	$557 1,113 coins	10.3%	2	1.2	1.70×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$285 570 coins	12.3%	2	2.8	0.73×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$202 403 coins	9.9%	3	3.1	0.95×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial	1 in 100	$188 376 coins	11.6%	6	3.9	1.53×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$117 235 coins	14.5%	10	7.9	1.27×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$44.42 88.83 coins	8.2%	18	11.8	1.53×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$29.21 58.42 coins	7.2%	10	15.7	0.64×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$17.55 35.1 coins	5.4%	20	19.7	1.02×
Charm \| Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$15.80 31.6 coins	1.9%	8	7.9	1.02×
Charm \| Big Kevcharm · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$8.80 17.6 coins	1.1%	6	7.9	0.76×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$7.44 14.88 coins	0.9%	13	7.9	1.65×
MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$5.63 11.26 coins	0.7%	6	7.9	0.76×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$2.67 5.34 coins	0.3%	11	7.9	1.40×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.17 4.33 coins	0.3%	5	7.9	0.64×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	71.1%	$1.66 3.32 coins	7.3%	273	279.4	0.98×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$18.0236.03 coins$5571,113 coins30.90x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$18.0236.03 coins$5571,113 coins30.90x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x16h

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMoon1025$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x16h

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$18.0236.03 coins$5571,113 coins30.90x1d

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x1d

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedaxel02legmail$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x1d

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x1d

MP7 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$18.0236.03 coins$5.6311.26 coins0.31x1d

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.0236.03 coins$1.663.32 coins0.09x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$18.02	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.9%Classified 0.3%classified 74.8%Industrial 1.0%#d32ee6 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%#4b69ff 2.0%restricted 4.0%industrial 2.0%best hit $557 (30.90x)