Eden
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.01
50.01 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $22.50 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.02%
429 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 429 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl | 1 in 5,000 | $2,845 5,691 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $316 632 coins | 14.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $250 500 coins | 22.2% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 33 | $137 274 coins | 18.3% | 9 | 12.9 | 0.70× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | Sage Spray (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer | 1 in 25 | $65.10 130 coins | 11.6% | 22 | 17.2 | 1.28× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $26.63 53.26 coins | 11.8% | 45 | 42.9 | 1.05× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 39.0% | $11.04 22.07 coins | 19.1% | 163 | 167.3 | 0.97× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 41.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 0.4% | 179 | 175.8 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.01 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.0%covert knife 4.0%covert 2.0%consumer 4.0%classified 10.0%restricted 39.0%#4b69ff 41.0%best hit —