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Elf Toys

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$62.72
125 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $56.44 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
56.14%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
64 openings · below min
7 days
104 openings · below min
30 days
122 openings · below min
since tracking started
122 openings · below min
-0.5%66.8%134.0%

Small sample. 122 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6462.78%±70.5—odds
7d10463.70%±55.3—odds
30d12256.14%±51.1—odds
All12256.14%±51.1—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$1,138 2,276 coins20.2%11.20.82×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$1,022 2,043 coins18.1%01.20.00×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$675 1,351 coins12.0%01.20.00×
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$658 1,317 coins11.7%21.21.64×
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$506 1,012 coins9.0%11.20.82×
CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec15.0%$75.09 150 coins20.0%1118.30.60×
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$19.18 38.36 coins8.5%2430.50.79×
CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade25.0%$1.56 3.11 coins0.7%3130.51.02×
M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 230.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%5236.61.42×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emeraldchuubs$62.72125 coins$1,1382,276 coins18.15x
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$62.72125 coins$6581,317 coins10.50x
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$62.72125 coins$6581,317 coins10.50x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$62.72125 coins$5061,012 coins8.06x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$62.72125 coins$1.563.11 coins0.02x
M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 2$62.72125 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$62.72125 coins$1.563.11 coins0.02x
M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 2$62.72125 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 2$62.72125 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 2$62.72125 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$62.72125 coins$19.1838.36 coins0.31x
M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 2chuubs$62.72125 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$62.72125 coins$19.1838.36 coins0.31x
CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$62.72125 coins$75.09150 coins1.20x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$62.7290.00%9
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 30.0%covert 5.0%mil spec 40.0%Consumer Grade 25.0%best hit $1,138 (18.15x)