Elfs Rifle
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.40
4.8 coins
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $2.16 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.34%
2,346 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.89% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.91% – 89.77%, 2,346 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,346 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $57.88 116 coins | 26.8% | 15 | 23.5 | 0.64× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $15.17 30.34 coins | 28.1% | 91 | 93.8 | 0.97× |
| M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $12.07 24.13 coins | 28.0% | 109 | 117.3 | 0.93× |
| AUG | Navy Murano (Factory New)weapon · #777777 | 1 in 17 | $2.76 5.52 coins | 7.7% | 134 | 140.8 | 0.95× |
| FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $1.35 2.69 coins | 4.4% | 173 | 164.2 | 1.05× |
| Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $0.72 1.44 coins | 2.7% | 177 | 187.7 | 0.94× |
| FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $0.34 0.67 coins | 1.4% | 199 | 211.1 | 0.94× |
| AUG | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Common | 60.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 1.0% | 1,448 | 1407.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.40 | 89.89% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%classified 4.0%#777777 6.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 9.0%Common 60.0%best hit —