Elite Box
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.18
0.36 coins
Advertised RTP
88.79%
EV $0.16 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.53%
13.5K openings, odds method
Variance
20.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $53.59 107 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $22.21 44.41 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $9.67 19.34 coins | 6.1% | 11 | 13.5 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $3.12 6.23 coins | 9.7% | 64 | 67.6 | 0.95× |
| P90 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 67 | $0.71 1.43 coins | 6.7% | 214 | 202.9 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 1 in 67 | $0.56 1.11 coins | 5.2% | 203 | 202.9 | 1.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 10.9% | 1,332 | 1352.8 | 0.98× |
| P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.13 0.26 coins | 20.3% | 3,414 | 3382.0 | 1.01× |
| Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 61.3% | $0.08 0.16 coins | 30.7% | 8,284 | 8298.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$0.180.36 coins$53.59107 coins297.7x
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedasSpeed$0.180.36 coins$53.59107 coins297.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFustfej123$0.180.36 coins$0.080.16 coins0.44x
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFustfej123$0.180.36 coins$0.080.16 coins0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.79%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.18 | 88.79% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.2%mil spec 61.8%#4b69ff 26.5%Rare 11.5%best hit $53.59 (297.7x)