Emperor
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.77
35.54 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $15.99 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.54%
72 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 72 openings and 25.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $250 500 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $98.35 197 coins | 12.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 33.0% | $26.67 53.34 coins | 55.0% | 26 | 23.8 | 1.09× |
| FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $6.05 12.1 coins | 9.5% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 21.7% | $5.17 10.34 coins | 7.0% | 20 | 15.6 | 1.28× |
| P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 17 | $0.53 1.06 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 17 | $0.52 1.04 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.96× |
| AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 17 | $0.51 1.02 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.77 | 90.01% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%classified 54.7%restricted 25.0%Rare 5.8%blue 5.8%mil spec 5.8%best hit —