Factory Seal

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.66

27.32 coins

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $12.29 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.73%

3,920 openings, odds method

Variance

50.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

121.34%±99.88193 openings

7 days

82.59%±24.913,102 openings

30 days

82.73%±22.163,920 openings

since tracking started

82.73%±22.163,920 openings

21.0%121.5%222.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	193	121.34%±99.9	+0.6σ	odds
7d	3,102	82.59%±24.9	−0.6σ	odds
30d	3,920	82.73%±22.2	−0.6σ	odds
All	3,920	82.73%±22.2	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,920 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 20,000	$8,972 17,944 coins	3.7%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$6,181 12,362 coins	5.0%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 1,000	$797 1,594 coins	6.5%	5	3.9	1.28×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$195 391 coins	15.9%	31	39.2	0.79×
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 67	$130 259 coins	15.8%	70	58.8	1.19×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$92.34 185 coins	22.5%	106	117.6	0.90×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$53.36 107 coins	17.4%	167	156.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$16.76 33.52 coins	8.2%	246	235.2	1.05×
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$6.58 13.16 coins	3.7%	266	274.4	0.97×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.95 1.91 coins	0.8%	384	392.0	0.98×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · Rare	15.0%	$0.17 0.35 coins	0.2%	601	588.0	1.02×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	52.4%	$0.07 0.14 coins	0.3%	2,044	2053.5	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$13.6627.32 coins$7971,594 coins58.35x11h

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$13.6627.32 coins$7971,594 coins58.35x1d

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$13.6627.32 coins$7971,594 coins58.35x3d

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$13.6627.32 coins$7971,594 coins58.35x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · Rare$13.6627.32 coins$0.170.35 coins0.01x2m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$13.6627.32 coins$0.070.14 coins0.01x2m

AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$13.6627.32 coins$0.951.91 coins0.07x2m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$13.6627.32 coins$0.070.14 coins0.01x2m

MAG-7 | Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$13.6627.32 coins$6.5813.16 coins0.48x2m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specBG2x$13.6627.32 coins$0.070.14 coins0.01x2m

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · Rare$13.6627.32 coins$0.170.35 coins0.01x4m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$13.6627.32 coins$0.070.14 coins0.01x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$13.66	89.98%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.0%#4B69FF 0.1%Classified 5.0%#d32ee6 1.5%classified 3.0%mil spec 65.4%industrial 10.0%Rare 15.0%best hit $797 (58.35x)