Fade
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.59
53.18 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $23.93 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.24%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic | 1 in 200 | $522 1,043 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $253 506 coins | 10.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $231 461 coins | 19.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $130 259 coins | 27.1% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $58.26 117 coins | 12.2% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.64× |
| MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $12.17 24.33 coins | 10.2% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.07× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $11.52 23.04 coins | 9.6% | 23 | 24.4 | 0.94× |
| Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 46.5% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 0.2% | 54 | 56.7 | 0.95× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$26.5953.18 coins$5221,043 coins19.62x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.59 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.5%covert 28.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 20.0%milspec 46.5%best hit $522 (19.62x)