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Festive

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$49.93
99.85 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $44.93 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.61%
476 openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
79.77%±32.69410 openings
30 days
84.61%±30.34476 openings
since tracking started
84.61%±30.34476 openings
46.5%81.0%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d41079.77%±32.7−0.6σodds
30d47684.61%±30.3−0.3σodds
All47684.61%±30.3−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 1,000$1,880 3,759 coins4.2%10.5—
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1,699 3,398 coins3.8%00.5—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$1,581 3,163 coins3.5%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 500$1,448 2,897 coins6.4%11.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 500$1,385 2,771 coins6.2%11.0—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 500$1,293 2,585 coins5.8%01.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 333$1,010 2,020 coins6.7%31.42.10×
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 250$835 1,669 coins7.4%11.90.53×
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 250$510 1,020 coins4.5%21.91.05×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 33$202 405 coins13.5%1714.31.19×
★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 33$155 310 coins10.4%1514.31.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$123 247 coins8.2%1114.30.77×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$114 227 coins7.6%1114.30.77×
★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 33$100 201 coins6.7%1314.30.91×
Souvenir Galil AR | VariCamo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon1 in 33$75.08 150 coins5.0%1114.30.77×
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff80.0%$0.01 0.03 coins0.0%389380.81.02×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$49.9399.85 coins$1,8803,759 coins37.65x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$49.9399.85 coins$1,4482,897 coins29.01x
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary$49.9399.85 coins$1,3852,771 coins27.75x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.9399.85 coins$1,0102,020 coins20.23x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.9399.85 coins$1,0102,020 coins20.23x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.9399.85 coins$1,0102,020 coins20.23x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$49.9399.85 coins$8351,669 coins16.72x
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$49.9399.85 coins$5101,020 coins10.22x
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$49.9399.85 coins$5101,020 coins10.22x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$49.9399.85 coins$202405 coins4.05x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert$49.9399.85 coins$114227 coins2.27x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffprudent$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$49.9399.85 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$49.9399.85 coins$100201 coins2.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$49.9389.99%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.1%covert 4.3%legendary 0.2%epic 0.4%covert knife 6.0%#ffd700 3.0%classified 3.0%other 3.0%#4b69ff 80.0%best hit $1,880 (37.65x)