Final Roll
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.25
52.49 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $23.62 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.70%
58 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1$26.2552.49 coins$44.5989.17 coins1.70x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedoptic1000$26.2552.49 coins$52.80106 coins2.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.25 | 89.98% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 1.0%covert knife 2.5%restricted 19.0%covert 10.5%extraordinary 1.5%classified 4.5%industrial 5.5%Mythical 6.0%#4b69ff 49.5%best hit —