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FIRE 10% FLARE

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$12.50
25 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
97.76%
1,325 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
260 openings · below min
7 days
829 openings · below min
30 days
97.76%±37.051,325 openings
since tracking started
97.76%±37.051,325 openings
21.0%159.3%297.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h260159.18%±137.5—sample
7d82996.47%±53.3—sample
30d1,32597.76%±37.1—sample
All1,32597.76%±37.1—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$1,5483,095 coins123.8x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$1,5483,095 coins123.8x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$1,5483,095 coins123.8x
★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$7831,565 coins62.61x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$5781,155 coins46.21x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$5781,155 coins46.21x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$5781,155 coins46.21x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.5025 coins$5781,155 coins46.21x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerApex5887$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerApex5887$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,548 (123.8x)