Fire Dance
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.15
2.3 coins
Advertised RTP
89.62%
EV $1.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.36%
532 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 532 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $6.75 13.49 coins | 19.6% | 18 | 16.0 | 1.13× |
| FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $6.05 12.1 coins | 17.6% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 11 | $2.09 4.17 coins | 18.2% | 48 | 47.9 | 1.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $2.01 4.02 coins | 17.6% | 47 | 47.9 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 12.0% | $0.60 1.2 coins | 7.0% | 52 | 63.8 | 0.81× |
| MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 12.0% | $0.58 1.17 coins | 6.8% | 66 | 63.8 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue | 12.0% | $0.55 1.1 coins | 6.4% | 70 | 63.8 | 1.10× |
| MAG-7 | Insomnia (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 40.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 6.8% | 216 | 212.8 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · MythicalMoon1025$1.152.3 coins$2.094.17 coins1.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.15 | 89.62% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 6.0%Mythical 9.0%mil spec 21.0%violet 12.0%blue 12.0%#4b69ff 40.0%best hit —