Fire Serpent
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.21
6.41 coins
Advertised RTP
89.87%
EV $2.88 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.39%
21.1K openings, odds method
Variance
61.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 106
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedpatriarch1337$3.216.41 coins$0.240.48 coins0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.21 | 89.87% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%restricted 86.1%classified 4.0%Ancient 0.4%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%best hit $1,828 (570.4x)