Fireline
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.22
4.44 coins
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $2.00 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.24%
35.7K openings, odds method
Variance
520.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,538
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $3,948 7,896 coins | 19.8% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 4,000 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 22.9% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $648 1,295 coins | 9.7% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 667 | $113 226 coins | 8.5% | 55 | 53.6 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $93.28 187 coins | 11.7% | 79 | 89.3 | 0.88× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $15.38 30.75 coins | 7.7% | 366 | 357.4 | 1.02× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $14.24 28.47 coins | 14.3% | 686 | 714.7 | 0.96× |
| Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $0.24 0.48 coins | 4.2% | 12,502 | 12507.6 | 1.00× |
| Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 61.5% | $0.04 0.08 coins | 1.2% | 22,025 | 21990.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$2.224.44 coins$3,9487,896 coins1,778x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.22 | 89.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 3.3%classified 0.1%restricted 35.0%mil spec 61.5%best hit $3,948 (1,778x)