Fishy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.44

0.88 coins

Advertised RTP

89.56%

EV $0.39 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.68%

8,607 openings, odds method

Variance

107.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.53%±60.041,147 openings

7 days

99.50%±24.007,180 openings

30 days

93.68%±21.928,607 openings

since tracking started

93.68%±21.928,607 openings

26.0%86.5%147.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,147	86.53%±60.0	−0.1σ	odds
7d	7,180	99.50%±24.0	+0.8σ	odds
30d	8,607	93.68%±21.9	+0.4σ	odds
All	8,607	93.68%±21.9	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,611 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$259 519 coins	6.6%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$252 504 coins	6.4%	2	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 10,000	$131 262 coins	3.3%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$129 258 coins	3.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$62.66 125 coins	7.9%	7	4.3	1.63×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$45.11 90.22 coins	5.7%	4	4.3	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$26.67 53.34 coins	4.1%	2	5.2	0.39×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$26.63 53.26 coins	4.1%	6	5.2	1.16×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$22.39 44.77 coins	3.4%	7	5.2	1.35×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,667	$18.27 36.53 coins	2.8%	6	5.2	1.16×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.08 2.16 coins	24.7%	820	775.0	1.06×
M249 \| Downtown (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$1.04 2.07 coins	23.6%	766	775.0	0.99×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	81.6%	$0.02 0.04 coins	4.1%	6,990	7028.3	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$0.440.88 coins$252504 coins572.7x4d

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$0.440.88 coins$252504 coins572.7x6d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.440.88 coins$129258 coins293.6x3h

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$0.440.88 coins$62.66125 coins142.4x3d

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertvahidka023gma$0.440.88 coins$62.66125 coins142.4x4d

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$0.440.88 coins$62.66125 coins142.4x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1$0.440.88 coins$0.020.04 coins0.05x34m

M249 | Downtown (Factory New)weapon · violet$0.440.88 coins$1.042.07 coins2.35x34m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1$0.440.88 coins$0.020.04 coins0.05x34m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1chxngezs$0.440.88 coins$0.020.04 coins0.05x34m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1$0.440.88 coins$0.020.04 coins0.05x42m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1chxngezs$0.440.88 coins$0.020.04 coins0.05x42m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1$0.440.88 coins$0.020.04 coins0.05x42m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.56%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.44	89.56%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 81.6%covert 0.2%classified 0.1%knifes 0.0%covert knife 0.0%restricted 9.1%violet 9.0%best hit $252 (572.7x)