FLEX

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$248.65

497 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $223.78 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.39%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

11.5%75.3%139.0%

Small sample. 20 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	75.39%±63.0	—	odds
7d	20	75.39%±63.0	—	odds
30d	20	75.39%±63.0	—	odds
All	20	75.39%±63.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$9,398 18,795 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$4,209 8,418 coins	1.9%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$3,134 6,269 coins	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$2,317 4,635 coins	5.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1	1 in 100	$1,692 3,384 coins	7.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$1,505 3,010 coins	6.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire	1 in 13	$632 1,265 coins	22.6%	2	1.6	1.25×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$424 849 coins	15.2%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 13	$343 685 coins	12.2%	1	1.6	0.63×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 13	$257 514 coins	9.2%	2	1.6	1.25×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	21.0%	$66.23 132 coins	6.2%	3	4.2	0.71×
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted	21.0%	$66.04 132 coins	6.2%	5	4.2	1.19×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	23.3%	$50.13 100 coins	5.2%	5	4.7	1.07×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.