Flinch
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.32
2.64 coins
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $1.19 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.32%
6,203 openings, odds method
Variance
17.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,203 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.32 | 89.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%industrial 0.2%classified 1.5%Mythical 0.8%Rare 2.5%Uncommon 5.5%#777777 3.0%violet 3.0%#8847ff 13.5%mil spec 10.0%Consumer Grade 60.0%best hit $138 (104.3x)