Flocktail Hour
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.08
30.16 coins
Advertised RTP
87.98%
EV $13.27 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.11%
230 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 230 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 100,000 | $2,156 4,312 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $45.68 91.35 coins | 34.4% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× |
| MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $22.29 44.58 coins | 16.8% | 29 | 23.0 | 1.26× |
| M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $19.42 38.83 coins | 18.3% | 22 | 28.8 | 0.77× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $16.67 33.34 coins | 15.7% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $7.59 15.17 coins | 7.1% | 19 | 28.8 | 0.66× |
| Nova | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $6.70 13.4 coins | 6.3% | 33 | 28.8 | 1.15× |
| AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 1.2% | 79 | 69.0 | 1.14× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classifiedBluntLynx8390$15.0830.16 coins$16.6733.34 coins1.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.08 | 87.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 47.5%#4b69ff 10.0%restricted 12.5%mil spec 30.0%best hit —