Forest

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$176.38

353 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $158.74 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.43%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

1.0%68.0%135.0%

Small sample. 24 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	67.07%±65.6	—	odds
7d	24	96.43%±37.9	—	odds
30d	24	96.43%±37.9	—	odds
All	24	96.43%±37.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 100	$744 1,488 coins	4.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$739 1,478 coins	4.7%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$721 1,443 coins	4.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$721 1,442 coins	4.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100	$510 1,020 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$506 1,011 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$502 1,004 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 100	$259 519 coins	1.6%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	11.0%	$259 517 coins	17.9%	1	2.6	0.38×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	11.0%	$254 508 coins	17.6%	3	2.6	1.14×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.0%	$252 504 coins	17.5%	7	2.6	2.65×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	11.0%	$75.38 151 coins	5.2%	1	2.6	0.38×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	11.0%	$75.32 151 coins	5.2%	2	2.6	0.76×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$75.09 150 coins	5.2%	4	2.6	1.52×
Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	11.0%	$12.80 25.6 coins	0.9%	2	2.6	0.76×
M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	11.0%	$12.53 25.05 coins	0.9%	2	2.6	0.76×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.24 0.48 coins	0.0%	0	0.5	—
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1	0.5	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$176353 coins$7211,442 coins4.09x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$176353 coins$75.38151 coins0.43x21m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$176353 coins$254508 coins1.44x21m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$176353 coins$252504 coins1.43x21m

Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$176353 coins$12.8025.6 coins0.07x21m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$176353 coins$252504 coins1.43x21m

M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$176353 coins$12.5325.05 coins0.07x21m

CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$176353 coins$75.09150 coins0.43x21m

Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeMoon1025$176353 coins$12.8025.6 coins0.07x21m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$176353 coins$252504 coins1.43x4d

M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$176353 coins$12.5325.05 coins0.07x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$176	90.00%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedknifes 2.0%covert 36.0%epic 1.0%Covert 1.0%covert knife 12.0%classified 11.0%mil spec 11.0%Industrial Grade 11.0%#87c7ff 11.0%Mythical 2.0%#4b69ff 2.0%best hit $721 (4.09x)