Formal

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.78

15.55 coins

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $7.00 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.29%

3,501 openings, odds method

Variance

76.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.99%±90.66358 openings

7 days

111.86%±33.062,693 openings

30 days

100.29%±28.993,501 openings

since tracking started

100.29%±28.993,501 openings

-0.5%83.0%166.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	358	74.99%±90.7	−0.3σ	odds
7d	2,693	111.86%±33.1	+1.3σ	odds
30d	3,501	100.29%±29.0	+0.7σ	odds
All	3,501	100.29%±29.0	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,517 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$2,112 4,224 coins	30.2%	5	3.5	1.42×
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 500	$249 497 coins	7.1%	7	7.0	1.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$104 208 coins	3.0%	6	7.0	0.85×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$49.33 98.65 coins	17.6%	77	87.9	0.88×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	10.0%	$7.60 15.19 coins	10.9%	390	351.7	1.11×
P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	25.0%	$5.03 10.05 coins	18.0%	877	879.3	1.00×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restricted	31.0%	$1.98 3.96 coins	8.8%	1,092	1090.3	1.00×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare	31.0%	$1.02 2.04 coins	4.5%	1,063	1090.3	0.97×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.7815.55 coins$2,1124,224 coins271.6x1d

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.7815.55 coins$2,1124,224 coins271.6x3d

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.7815.55 coins$2,1124,224 coins271.6x5d

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.7815.55 coins$2,1124,224 coins271.6x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$7.7815.55 coins$1.022.04 coins0.13x10m

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGrimViper3313$7.7815.55 coins$1.983.96 coins0.25x10m

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$7.7815.55 coins$1.022.04 coins0.13x10m

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restricted$7.7815.55 coins$1.983.96 coins0.25x10m

P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$7.7815.55 coins$5.0310.05 coins0.65x10m

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$7.7815.55 coins$1.022.04 coins0.13x10m

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$7.7815.55 coins$7.6015.19 coins0.98x21m

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$7.7815.55 coins$1.022.04 coins0.13x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.78	89.98%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 2.8%Extraordinary 0.2%#eb4b4b 10.0%Uncommon 25.0%restricted 31.0%Rare 31.0%best hit $2,112 (271.6x)