Fracture

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$101.98

204 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $91.78 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.71%

2,601 openings, odds method

Variance

16.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

101.36%±30.05703 openings

30 days

91.71%±15.622,601 openings

since tracking started

91.71%±15.622,601 openings

-0.5%165.3%331.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	48.78%±281.7	—	odds
7d	703	101.36%±30.0	+0.7σ	odds
30d	2,601	91.71%±15.6	+0.2σ	odds
All	2,601	91.71%±15.6	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,601 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$8,675 17,351 coins	0.9%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| LUCAS1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker	1 in 6,667	$7,441 14,883 coins	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$6,892 13,784 coins	1.5%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl	1 in 3,333	$6,327 12,654 coins	2.1%	1	0.8	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$6,222 12,443 coins	2.0%	1	0.8	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$6,181 12,362 coins	2.0%	0	0.8	—
Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$5,513 11,026 coins	2.4%	3	1.0	2.88×
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$4,761 9,523 coins	2.6%	2	1.3	1.54×
Charm \| Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 667	$3,485 6,970 coins	5.7%	2	3.9	0.51×
Sticker \| Twistzz (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 667	$3,407 6,814 coins	5.6%	5	3.9	1.28×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$3,134 6,269 coins	6.8%	3	5.2	0.58×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$3,126 6,252 coins	6.8%	5	5.2	0.96×
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$3,086 6,171 coins	6.7%	9	5.2	1.73×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	98.9%	$49.74 99.48 coins	53.6%	2,570	2571.7	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl$102204 coins$6,32712,654 coins62.05x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$102204 coins$6,22212,443 coins61.01x8d

Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$102204 coins$5,51311,026 coins54.06x5d

Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$102204 coins$5,51311,026 coins54.06x6d

Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$102204 coins$5,51311,026 coins54.06x8d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$102204 coins$4,7619,523 coins46.69x6d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$102204 coins$4,7619,523 coins46.69x8d

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$102204 coins$3,4856,970 coins34.17x1d

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$102204 coins$3,4856,970 coins34.17x8d

Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$102204 coins$3,4076,814 coins33.41x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified$102204 coins$49.7499.48 coins0.49x15h

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMoon1025$102204 coins$49.7499.48 coins0.49x15h

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified$102204 coins$49.7499.48 coins0.49x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$102	90.00%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%other 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%contraband 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%classified 98.9%best hit $6,327 (62.05x)