Fragile
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.13
56.25 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.31 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
134.55%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 11 | $83.53 167 coins | 29.7% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× |
| MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $68.12 136 coins | 24.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $66.38 133 coins | 23.6% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× |
| Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 11 | $55.81 112 coins | 19.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue | 64.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 2.6% | 12 | 16.6 | 0.72× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$28.1356.25 coins$83.53167 coins2.97x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$28.1356.25 coins$55.81112 coins1.98x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$28.1356.25 coins$55.81112 coins1.98x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.13 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 9.0%restricted 9.0%covert 9.0%industrial 9.0%blue 64.0%best hit —