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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.53
3.06 coins
Advertised RTP
89.84%
EV $1.37 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.19%
640 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Hades (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $9.11 18.22 coins | 33.1% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× |
| Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $7.66 15.32 coins | 27.9% | 38 | 32.0 | 1.19× |
| P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $4.59 9.17 coins | 16.7% | 36 | 32.0 | 1.13× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 7.6% | 71 | 64.0 | 1.11× |
| USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.71 1.42 coins | 5.2% | 50 | 64.0 | 0.78× |
| CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $0.41 0.81 coins | 2.9% | 74 | 64.0 | 1.16× |
| G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec | 1 in 20 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 1.0% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× |
| SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 50.0% | $0.15 0.31 coins | 5.6% | 303 | 320.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.53 | 89.84% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 5.0%mil spec 5.0%restricted 15.0%Mythical 10.0%Consumer Grade 10.0%Mil Spec 5.0%Rare 50.0%best hit —