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Frankenstein

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.53
1.05 coins
Advertised RTP
89.86%
EV $0.47 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.43%
10.6K openings, odds method
Variance
299.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 833
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
1,381 openings · below min
7 days
94.67%±35.209,290 openings
30 days
94.43%±32.9810.6K openings
since tracking started
94.43%±32.9810.6K openings
-0.5%79.8%160.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,38167.83%±91.3—odds
7d9,29094.67%±35.2+0.3σodds
30d10.6K94.43%±33.0+0.3σodds
All10.6K94.43%±33.0+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 10,000$314 628 coins6.7%21.11.89×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife1 in 5,000$293 587 coins12.4%02.10.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 5,000$271 542 coins11.5%32.11.42×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 3,333$239 478 coins15.2%13.20.32×
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 2,500$173 345 coins14.6%114.22.60×
★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 2,500$128 255 coins10.8%44.20.95×
Souvenir P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 2,500$83.12 166 coins7.0%34.20.71×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 21 in 2,000$52.17 104 coins5.5%35.30.57×
MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$32.98 65.95 coins7.0%710.60.66×
P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 333$9.51 19.01 coins6.0%3831.71.20×
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer49.7%$0.02 0.04 coins2.1%5,2515258.81.00×
R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec49.6%$0.01 0.02 coins1.1%5,2585253.51.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$0.531.05 coins$314628 coins598.1x
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$0.531.05 coins$314628 coins598.1x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.531.05 coins$271542 coins516.2x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.531.05 coins$271542 coins516.2x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.531.05 coins$271542 coins516.2x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifevahidka023gma$0.531.05 coins$239478 coins455.0x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$0.531.05 coins$173345 coins328.8x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Petitrequin00$0.531.05 coins$173345 coins328.8x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$0.531.05 coins$173345 coins328.8x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$0.531.05 coins$173345 coins328.8x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.531.05 coins$0.020.04 coins0.04x
R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.531.05 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x
R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.531.05 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x
R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.531.05 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.531.05 coins$0.020.04 coins0.04x
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.531.05 coins$0.020.04 coins0.04x
R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.531.05 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.531.05 coins$0.020.04 coins0.04x
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.531.05 coins$0.020.04 coins0.04x
PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.531.05 coins$0.020.04 coins0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$0.5389.86%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%other 0.0%covert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%Industrial Grade 0.0%restricted 0.1%milspec 50.0%consumer 49.7%best hit $314 (598.1x)