Freakout

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$96.94

194 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $87.24 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.08%

589 openings, odds method

Variance

22.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

88.52%±40.57535 openings

30 days

90.08%±38.67589 openings

since tracking started

90.08%±38.67589 openings

47.5%88.5%129.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	535	88.52%±40.6	−0.1σ	odds
30d	589	90.08%±38.7	+0.0σ	odds
All	589	90.08%±38.7	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 589 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$217K 434,217 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$112K 223,312 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000,000	$73.5K 147,047 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000,000	$72.4K 144,822 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000,000	$52.4K 104,780 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$41.2K 82,490 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100,000	$36.5K 72,902 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$36.3K 72,651 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$31.6K 63,128 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$26.7K 53,347 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 50,000	$25.5K 51,019 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$24.8K 49,625 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50,000	$18.7K 37,392 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50,000	$15.1K 30,112 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$555 1,110 coins	19.1%	15	17.7	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$554 1,107 coins	19.0%	13	17.7	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 33	$550 1,099 coins	18.9%	22	17.7	1.25×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$549 1,098 coins	18.9%	26	17.7	1.47×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 33	$546 1,092 coins	18.8%	17	17.7	0.96×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	16.5%	$0.53 1.06 coins	0.1%	88	97.2	0.91×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	16.5%	$0.53 1.05 coins	0.1%	102	97.2	1.05×
P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue	16.5%	$0.52 1.04 coins	0.1%	98	97.2	1.01×
AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.5%	$0.51 1.02 coins	0.1%	81	97.2	0.83×
MP9 \| Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	19.0%	$0.51 1.01 coins	0.1%	127	111.8	1.14×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertEliteRift1189$96.94194 coins$5551,110 coins5.73x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$96.94194 coins$5551,110 coins5.73x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$96.94194 coins$5551,110 coins5.73x4d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$96.94194 coins$5551,110 coins5.73x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$96.94194 coins$0.511.01 coins0.01x1d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$96.94194 coins$5541,107 coins5.71x1d

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue$96.94194 coins$0.521.04 coins0.01x1d

MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$96.94194 coins$0.511.01 coins0.01x1d

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue$96.94194 coins$0.521.04 coins0.01x1d

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$96.94194 coins$0.531.05 coins0.01x1d

AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffEliteRift1189$96.94194 coins$0.531.06 coins0.01x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$96.94194 coins$5491,098 coins5.66x1d

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue$96.94194 coins$0.521.04 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$96.94	90.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.0%legendary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert knife 3.0%#EB4B4B 3.0%#8847ff 16.5%#87c7ff 16.5%blue 16.5%mil spec 35.5%best hit $555 (5.73x)