Frontline

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.34

50.68 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $22.81 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.44%

60 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

60 openings · below min

since tracking started

60 openings · below min

-0.5%90.5%181.5%

Small sample. 60 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	62.69%±118.3	—	odds
7d	46	50.83%±49.3	—	odds
30d	60	78.44%±43.2	—	odds
All	60	78.44%±43.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 10,000	$1,353 2,706 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$835 1,669 coins	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$280 560 coins	12.3%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$165 329 coins	10.8%	0	0.9	—
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$82.86 166 coins	10.9%	1	1.8	0.56×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$54.12 108 coins	7.1%	3	1.8	1.67×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2	1 in 33	$52.17 104 coins	6.9%	1	1.8	0.56×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$40.42 80.83 coins	8.9%	1	3.0	0.33×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$34.17 68.34 coins	7.5%	4	3.0	1.33×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$29.36 58.71 coins	6.4%	2	3.0	0.67×
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$28.33 56.65 coins	6.2%	2	3.0	0.67×
FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$24.98 49.95 coins	5.5%	3	3.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$22.37 44.74 coins	4.9%	4	3.0	1.33×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$13.44 26.87 coins	2.9%	4	3.0	1.33×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$7.63 15.26 coins	1.7%	3	3.0	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	48.4%	$2.64 5.27 coins	5.6%	31	29.1	1.07×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$25.3450.68 coins$2.645.27 coins0.10x14h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2$25.3450.68 coins$52.17104 coins2.06x14h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$25.3450.68 coins$2.645.27 coins0.10x14h

Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted$25.3450.68 coins$54.12108 coins2.14x14h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$25.3450.68 coins$2.645.27 coins0.10x14h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedoptic1000$25.3450.68 coins$7.6315.26 coins0.30x14h

M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$25.3450.68 coins$34.1768.34 coins1.35x1d

FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer$25.3450.68 coins$24.9849.95 coins0.99x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$25.34	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.0%covert 8.1%covert knife 1.0%restricted 9.5%mil spec 8.0%classified 63.4%industrial 5.0%consumer 5.0%best hit —