Frosted
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$75.57
151 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $68.01 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.13%
332 openings, odds method
Variance
9.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 356 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $2,730 5,460 coins | 20.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 200 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 9.7% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× |
| CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $312 625 coins | 23.0% | 16 | 17.8 | 0.90× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 1 in 20 | $310 620 coins | 22.8% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× |
| XM1014 | Frost Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $85.77 172 coins | 11.4% | 31 | 32.0 | 0.97× |
| Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 13 | $57.73 115 coins | 6.8% | 41 | 28.5 | 1.44× |
| P2000 | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $11.19 22.37 coins | 3.3% | 74 | 71.2 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 52.0% | $3.99 7.98 coins | 3.1% | 171 | 185.1 | 0.92× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$75.57151 coins$2,7305,460 coins36.13x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$75.57151 coins$2,7305,460 coins36.13x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$75.57151 coins$57.73115 coins0.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $75.57 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%high 0.5%restricted 5.0%sunny 5.0%mil spec 9.0%Restricted 8.0%classified 20.0%Legendary 52.0%best hit $2,730 (36.13x)