Frozen
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.74
5.48 coins
Advertised RTP
90.04%
EV $2.47 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.54%
2,734 openings, odds method
Variance
14.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,734 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XM1014 | Frost Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $85.77 172 coins | 34.8% | 26 | 27.3 | 0.95× |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $57.92 116 coins | 23.5% | 28 | 27.3 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $12.79 25.57 coins | 10.4% | 56 | 54.7 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $4.59 9.17 coins | 9.3% | 125 | 136.7 | 0.91× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $3.77 7.53 coins | 7.6% | 139 | 136.7 | 1.02× |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $0.70 1.41 coins | 8.6% | 810 | 820.2 | 0.99× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 28.0% | $0.34 0.69 coins | 3.9% | 743 | 765.5 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 28.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 2.0% | 807 | 765.5 | 1.05× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.74 | 90.04% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 29.0%industrial 29.0%Legendary 2.0%restricted 40.0%best hit —