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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.16
0.31 coins
Advertised RTP
89.68%
EV $0.14 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.38%
10.4K openings, odds method
Variance
2657.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11,111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10,373 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · CovertYGSuie$0.150.31 coins$8931,787 coins5,763x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.68%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.15 | 89.68% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Covert 0.0%other 0.0%Knives 0.0%sunny 0.0%light blue 40.0%#777777 30.0%#4b69ff 30.0%best hit $893 (5,763x)