Fuse

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,178.70

2,357 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,060.82 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

37.43%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

4.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

-0.5%111.8%224.0%

Small sample. 32 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	8.74%±214.7	—	odds
7d	32	37.43%±75.9	—	odds
30d	32	37.43%±75.9	—	odds
All	32	37.43%±75.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$12.1K 24,151 coins	5.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 143	$10.9K 21,888 coins	7.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire	1 in 111	$9,483 18,967 coins	8.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$9,318 18,637 coins	8.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 80	$8,347 16,693 coins	9.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 59	$7,444 14,887 coins	11.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 59	$7,137 14,274 coins	11.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$6,892 13,784 coins	13.0%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 33	$5,513 11,026 coins	15.6%	2	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	87.3%	$103 206 coins	8.5%	30	27.9	1.07×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.