Fussy Puck

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.65

103 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $46.48 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.36%

74 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

52 openings · below min

30 days

74 openings · below min

since tracking started

74 openings · below min

56.0%104.5%153.0%

Small sample. 74 openings and 7.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	52	111.02%±41.1	—	odds
30d	74	91.36%±34.5	—	odds
All	74	91.36%±34.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$525 1,051 coins	11.3%	1	0.7	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$248 495 coins	10.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$242 484 coins	10.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$235 470 coins	10.1%	3	1.5	2.03×
AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New)weapon	1 in 40	$156 312 coins	8.4%	4	1.9	2.16×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 40	$150 300 coins	8.1%	2	1.9	1.08×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$65.49 131 coins	5.6%	2	3.0	0.68×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 25	$60.91 122 coins	5.2%	1	3.0	0.34×
Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$58.94 118 coins	5.1%	3	3.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$53.67 107 coins	4.6%	1	3.0	0.34×
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$51.73 103 coins	4.5%	5	3.0	1.69×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$47.63 95.25 coins	4.1%	5	3.0	1.69×
Charm \| Lil' Whiskerscharm · #8847ff	12.0%	$15.58 31.15 coins	4.0%	10	8.9	1.13×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	52.0%	$7.07 14.13 coins	7.9%	37	38.5	0.96×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$51.65103 coins$5251,051 coins10.17x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Charm | Lil' Whiskerscharm · #8847ff$51.65103 coins$15.5831.15 coins0.30x2d

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert$51.65103 coins$7.0714.13 coins0.14x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$51.65103 coins$235470 coins4.55x2d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6$51.65103 coins$60.91122 coins1.18x2d

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$51.65103 coins$5251,051 coins10.17x2d

★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert$51.65103 coins$150300 coins2.91x2d

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert$51.65103 coins$7.0714.13 coins0.14x2d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$51.65103 coins$47.6395.25 coins0.92x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$51.65103 coins$51.73103 coins1.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.65	89.99%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 1.0%covert 62.5%extraordinary 10.0%other 2.5%#D32CE6 4.0%industrial 4.0%Classified 4.0%#8847ff 12.0%best hit $525 (10.17x)