Galaxy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$72.98

146 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $65.68 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

33.78%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

47.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

53.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%68.8%138.0%

Small sample. 6 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	33.78%±103.5	—	odds
30d	6	33.78%±103.5	—	odds
All	6	33.78%±103.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$531 1,062 coins	8.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$487 974 coins	7.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$438 876 coins	6.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 100	$372 743 coins	5.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$348 696 coins	5.3%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	42.0%	$90.84 182 coins	58.1%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$13.44 26.87 coins	1.6%	3	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 11	$13.27 26.54 coins	1.8%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$11.62 23.23 coins	1.6%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 11	$10.56 21.12 coins	1.4%	0	0.5	—
G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$9.21 18.42 coins	1.3%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$7.59 15.17 coins	1.0%	1	0.5	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$72.98146 coins$13.4426.87 coins0.18x2d

MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$72.98146 coins$90.84182 coins1.24x2d

M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$72.98146 coins$7.5915.17 coins0.10x2d

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$72.98146 coins$13.4426.87 coins0.18x2d

G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New)weapon · mil specBrentson$72.98146 coins$9.2118.42 coins0.13x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$72.98	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 11.0%sunny 1.0%restricted 1.0%mil spec 51.0%Industrial Grade 9.0%industrial 9.0%Ancient 9.0%classified 9.0%best hit —