Gengar
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$75.52
151 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $67.96 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.75%
735 openings, odds method
Variance
11.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 735 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 15.4% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.18× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 29 | $614 1,228 coins | 31.6% | 30 | 25.7 | 1.17× |
| ★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 29 | $506 1,011 coins | 26.0% | 28 | 25.7 | 1.09× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $235 470 coins | 26.8% | 56 | 57.0 | 0.98× |
| Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 85.0% | $0.08 0.16 coins | 0.1% | 617 | 624.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$75.52151 coins$235470 coins3.11x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$75.52151 coins$6141,228 coins8.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $75.52 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%other 3.5%Covert 3.5%extraordinary 7.8%mil spec 85.0%best hit $4,198 (55.59x)