Gigachad
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$149.02
298 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $134.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
45.21%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 40 | $1,037 2,074 coins | 19.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 40 | $1,012 2,023 coins | 18.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby | 1 in 40 | $1,011 2,022 coins | 18.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby | 1 in 40 | $873 1,745 coins | 16.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $633 1,265 coins | 14.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 10.0% | $153 307 coins | 11.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $4.62 9.24 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| M249 | Magma (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 52.0% | $0.65 1.3 coins | 0.3% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$149298 coins$6331,265 coins4.25x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$149298 coins$6331,265 coins4.25x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$149298 coins$153307 coins1.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $149 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.0%#EB4B4B 2.5%Covert 2.5%mil spec 77.0%best hit $633 (4.25x)