Gilded Tooth
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.63
19.25 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $8.66 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.98%
458 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 464 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $329 658 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $213 425 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $120 240 coins | 9.7% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.92× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $117 235 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 125 | $109 217 coins | 10.0% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| Tec-9 | Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 67 | $76.49 153 coins | 13.2% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $39.17 78.34 coins | 13.6% | 20 | 13.9 | 1.44× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 11.0% | $15.38 30.75 coins | 19.5% | 47 | 51.0 | 0.92× |
| Nova | Interlock (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 13.0% | $8.83 17.65 coins | 13.2% | 61 | 60.3 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 68.9% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 319 | 319.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.63 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 13.6%#4b69ff 1.5%restricted 3.0%mil spec 13.0%consumer 68.9%best hit —