GingerBread House

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6,914.29

13,829 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $6,222.86 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.37%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%121.3%243.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	97.37%±145.1	—	odds
7d	4	97.37%±145.1	—	odds
30d	4	97.37%±145.1	—	odds
All	4	97.37%±145.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$73.5K 147,047 coins	11.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 25	$36.5K 72,902 coins	23.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 17	$9,847 19,695 coins	9.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire	1 in 17	$9,483 18,967 coins	9.1%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 17	$9,398 18,795 coins	9.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$9,318 18,637 coins	9.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 17	$8,979 17,957 coins	8.7%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 17	$8,972 17,944 coins	8.7%	1	0.2	—
Sticker \| LUCAS1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker	1 in 11	$7,441 14,883 coins	10.8%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common	50.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1	2.0	0.50×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$6,91413,829 coins$8,97917,957 coins1.30x15h

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendaryBlankTorch7918$6,91413,829 coins$8,97217,944 coins1.30x15h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$6,91413,829 coins$8,97917,957 coins1.30x15h

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$6,91413,829 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendaryBlankTorch7918$6,91413,829 coins$8,97217,944 coins1.30x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$6,914	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 17.0%covert 18.0%#EB4B4B 6.0%other 9.0%Common 50.0%best hit $8,979 (1.30x)