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Glacier

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,786.73
3,573 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,608.06 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.50%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
4 openings · below min
7 days
68 openings · below min
30 days
68 openings · below min
since tracking started
68 openings · below min
-0.5%168.0%336.5%

Small sample. 68 openings and 7.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4103.34%±232.7—odds
7d6870.50%±56.4—odds
30d6870.50%±56.4—odds
All6870.50%±56.4—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 400$73.5K 147,047 coins11.4%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 50$10.6K 21,246 coins13.2%01.40.00×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 50$9,356 18,711 coins11.6%11.40.74×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$6,648 13,296 coins12.4%32.01.47×
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 33$4,806 9,611 coins9.0%02.00.00×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$3,134 6,269 coins5.8%52.02.45×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$2,469 4,937 coins4.6%22.00.98×
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 20$1,788 3,576 coins5.6%33.40.88×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 20$1,581 3,162 coins4.9%33.40.88×
Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 14$1,316 2,632 coins5.7%64.81.26×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 20$1,237 2,473 coins3.8%43.41.18×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire1 in 17$954 1,908 coins3.4%43.91.02×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B14.0%$249 497 coins2.2%139.51.37×
★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife14.0%$245 491 coins2.1%69.50.63×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert14.0%$240 481 coins2.1%99.50.95×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 414.0%$235 470 coins2.0%99.50.95×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$9,35618,711 coins5.24x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$6,64813,296 coins3.72x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$6,64813,296 coins3.72x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$6,64813,296 coins3.72x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,7873,573 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.75x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,7873,573 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.75x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,7873,573 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.75x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,7873,573 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.75x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,7873,573 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.75x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$2,4694,937 coins1.38x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$6,64813,296 coins3.72x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$1,7873,573 coins$249497 coins0.14x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$1,7873,573 coins$249497 coins0.14x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertSanityy$1,7873,573 coins$240481 coins0.13x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$1,7873,573 coins$249497 coins0.14x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$1,2372,473 coins0.69x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireJohnDoe77$1,7873,573 coins$1,2372,473 coins0.69x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1,7873,573 coins$240481 coins0.13x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,7873,573 coins$6,64813,296 coins3.72x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$1,7873,573 coins$235470 coins0.13x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$1,78790.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 5.3%covert 37.0%extraordinary 3.0%high 7.0%Covert 5.8%#EB4B4B 14.0%covert knife 14.0%Knives 14.0%best hit $9,356 (5.24x)