Glitch
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.62
83.23 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $37.45 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.28%
452 openings, odds method
Variance
27.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 53
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 200 | $2,919 5,838 coins | 39.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 71 | $555 1,109 coins | 20.7% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $201 401 coins | 10.7% | 16 | 9.0 | 1.77× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $101 202 coins | 13.5% | 31 | 22.6 | 1.37× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 27.0% | $12.42 24.83 coins | 9.0% | 115 | 122.0 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 28.0% | $7.63 15.26 coins | 5.7% | 112 | 126.6 | 0.88× |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 18.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 1.5% | 78 | 81.4 | 0.96× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 18.1% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 90 | 81.8 | 1.10× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$41.6283.23 coins$5551,109 coins13.33x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$41.6283.23 coins$5551,109 coins13.33x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$41.6283.23 coins$5551,109 coins13.33x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$41.6283.23 coins$5551,109 coins13.33x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$41.6283.23 coins$5551,109 coins13.33x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBG2x$41.6283.23 coins$5551,109 coins13.33x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.62 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.5%covert 33.4%Covert 2.0%restricted 28.0%industrial 18.0%#4b69ff 18.1%best hit $2,919 (70.14x)