Gnome

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.04

6.08 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $2.74 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.80%

2,195 openings, odds method

Variance

22.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.89%±59.66240 openings

7 days

83.81%±23.291,575 openings

30 days

84.80%±19.732,195 openings

since tracking started

84.80%±19.732,195 openings

31.5%91.8%152.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	240	91.89%±59.7	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,575	83.81%±23.3	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,195	84.80%±19.7	−0.5σ	odds
All	2,195	84.80%±19.7	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,195 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,258 2,517 coins	2.3%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 10,000	$501 1,002 coins	1.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$233 466 coins	8.5%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$50.22 100 coins	18.4%	24	21.9	1.09×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$25.31 50.62 coins	18.5%	54	43.9	1.23×
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 50	$17.64 35.28 coins	12.9%	43	43.9	0.98×
XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 50	$15.43 30.85 coins	11.3%	51	43.9	1.16×
Charm \| Backsplashcharm · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$14.00 28 coins	10.2%	43	43.9	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$6.71 13.42 coins	4.9%	39	43.9	0.89×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$2.75 5.49 coins	5.0%	111	109.8	1.01×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.07 2.13 coins	1.9%	110	109.8	1.00×
Charm \| Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.50 1 coins	2.7%	348	329.3	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare	25.0%	$0.15 0.3 coins	1.4%	518	548.8	0.94×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	38.9%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	854	853.5	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$3.046.08 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x12h

AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified$3.046.08 coins$25.3150.62 coins8.33x12h

Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$3.046.08 coins$2.755.49 coins0.90x12h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$3.046.08 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x12h

Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.046.08 coins$17.6435.28 coins5.80x12h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$3.046.08 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x12h

XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeiMadyyyy$3.046.08 coins$15.4330.85 coins5.07x12h

Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare$3.046.08 coins$0.150.3 coins0.05x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.04	89.97%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Covert 0.0%Extraordinary 0.1%extraordinary 1.0%classified 7.0%Consumer Grade 2.0%Industrial Grade 2.0%#4b69ff 55.9%mil spec 2.0%restricted 5.0%Rare 25.0%best hit —