Goblin Loot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.92
17.83 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $8.02 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.38%
6,105 openings, odds method
Variance
34.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 56
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,105 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 5,000 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 5,000 | $1,227 2,453 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 2,000 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 6.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $707 1,413 coins | 17.6% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.90× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $264 527 coins | 16.4% | 31 | 30.5 | 1.02× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 100 | $117 234 coins | 14.6% | 66 | 61.1 | 1.08× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $16.57 33.13 coins | 20.6% | 631 | 610.5 | 1.03× |
| P90 | Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 88.2% | $1.51 3.02 coins | 16.6% | 5,358 | 5384.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.9217.83 coins$1,0102,020 coins113.3x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.9217.83 coins$1,0102,020 coins113.3x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.9217.83 coins$1,0102,020 coins113.3x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.9217.83 coins$1,0102,020 coins113.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.92 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%extraordinary 0.0%covert knife 0.5%other 1.0%restricted 10.0%Common 88.2%best hit $1,301 (145.9x)