Price
$7.22
14.43 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $6.49 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.81%
39.8K openings, odds method
Variance
885.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,174
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7.2214.43 coins$31.6K63,128 coins4,375x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7.2214.43 coins$9,90919,817 coins1,373x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7.2214.43 coins$9,90919,817 coins1,373x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7.2214.43 coins$9,45718,914 coins1,311x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7.2214.43 coins$9,45718,914 coins1,311x
Sticker | bondik (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$7.2214.43 coins$7,06514,130 coins979.2x
Sticker | bondik (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$7.2214.43 coins$7,06514,130 coins979.2x
Sticker | bondik (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$7.2214.43 coins$7,06514,130 coins979.2x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$7.2214.43 coins$6,77413,548 coins938.9x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7.2214.43 coins$6,32812,655 coins877.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.22 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%legendary 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%other 0.0%Sticker 0.0%#4b69ff 99.8%best hit $31.6K (4,375x)