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Gold Rush

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$87.62
175 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $78.86 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.57%
1,496 openings, odds method
Variance
17.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
95.44%±46.31310 openings
30 days
87.57%±21.081,496 openings
since tracking started
87.57%±21.081,496 openings
48.5%95.5%142.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d31095.44%±46.3+0.2σodds
30d1,49687.57%±21.1−0.2σodds
All1,49687.57%±21.1−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,496 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | LUCAS1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker1 in 10,000$7,441 14,883 coins0.9%00.1—
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$6,181 12,362 coins1.6%00.3—
Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary1 in 1,429$4,260 8,520 coins3.8%21.01.91×
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B1 in 1,000$3,915 7,830 coins5.0%11.50.67×
Sticker | ropz (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Ancient1 in 800$3,290 6,581 coins5.2%11.90.53×
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 435$2,694 5,388 coins7.9%43.41.16×
Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary1 in 333$2,401 4,803 coins9.1%24.50.45×
Sticker | DD (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary1 in 200$1,751 3,502 coins11.1%87.51.07×
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 132$1,396 2,792 coins13.5%1611.41.41×
Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary1 in 121$1,250 2,500 coins13.1%1212.30.97×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 67$528 1,057 coins10.1%2022.40.89×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$315 630 coins12.0%4444.90.98×
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$60.29 121 coins2.3%3744.90.82×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$35.33 70.65 coins1.3%4544.91.00×
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33$30.88 61.75 coins1.2%4744.91.05×
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff83.6%$1.94 3.88 coins2.1%1,2571250.11.01×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$87.62175 coins$4,2608,520 coins48.62x
Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$87.62175 coins$4,2608,520 coins48.62x
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B$87.62175 coins$3,9157,830 coins44.68x
Sticker | ropz (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Ancient$87.62175 coins$3,2906,581 coins37.55x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$87.62175 coins$2,6945,388 coins30.75x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$87.62175 coins$2,6945,388 coins30.75x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$87.62175 coins$2,6945,388 coins30.75x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$87.62175 coins$2,6945,388 coins30.75x
Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinaryraka12k$87.62175 coins$2,4014,803 coins27.41x
Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary$87.62175 coins$2,4014,803 coins27.41x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$87.62175 coins$5281,057 coins6.03x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$87.62175 coins$315630 coins3.59x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$87.62175 coins$1.943.88 coins0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$87.6290.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 0.0%covert 11.5%extraordinary 1.4%#EB4B4B 0.1%Ancient 0.1%Extraordinary 0.3%restricted 3.0%#8847ff 83.6%best hit $4,260 (48.62x)